The Bay of Bengal system we flagged over the weekend has moved from a maybe to a real storm track. The low pressure area strengthened into a depression overnight on Saturday, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects it to become a cyclonic storm on Monday morning, October 26, and then a severe cyclonic storm. If it reaches that strength it will be named Arnab. The good news for Kolkata is that the centre of the storm is expected to cross the coast far to the south-west. The less good news is that its outer bands will still bring a wet and breezy few days to south Bengal.
This update replaces the guesswork in our earlier report on the Bay of Bengal low pressure with the latest track and the local impact.
Where the Storm Is and Where It Is Going
On Monday the system was roughly 820 km from Visakhapatnam and 910 km from Kakinada. It is moving north-westwards and is expected to hover over the west-central Bay of Bengal for around two days while edging towards land. Current forecasts point to landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast on the morning of Wednesday, October 28, somewhere between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam. Its strength may begin to fall by October 29.
Early model guidance last week was split, with one global model hinting at an Odisha landfall near Bhubaneswar and another pointing to Kakinada. The IMD track has since settled on Andhra Pradesh, which keeps the direct hit well away from West Bengal. Tracks can still shift while a storm is organising, so treat the dates here as the current best estimate.
What Kolkata and South Bengal Can Expect
Weather scientists at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Kolkata expect south Bengal’s coastal districts to see more rain and squally winds from Tuesday, October 27. Kolkata is likely to get moderate rain with winds of 30 to 40 km/h on October 28 and 29. Some reports also flag heavy rain in the city and nearby districts on Tuesday, so the exact peak day is not settled and sources differ slightly.
The heaviest pockets are forecast for South 24 Parganas, Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur and Jhargram, where 70 to 110 mm of rain is possible, along with thunderstorms, lightning and gusts of 40 to 50 km/h. Forecasters add that the impact grows if the system lingers over land, because even moderate rain becomes significant when it falls for a long time.
Why the Timing Matters in Kolkata
This is the week when many households are winding down the Lakshmi Puja season and starting Kali Puja, Diwali and Chhath preparations. Bamboo frames, tarpaulin covers and lights on temporary stalls do not like 40 km/h gusts. Low-lying parts of the city, such as stretches near canals and underpasses, also tend to hold water quickly when a heavy shower arrives in a short window.
Practical Tips for Residents
- Check the IMD Kolkata bulletin each morning from Tuesday, because the track and timing can change quickly.
- Carry an umbrella or raincoat on October 27, 28 and 29, and allow extra time for commutes on waterlogging-prone roads.
- If you are setting up an outdoor Kali Puja, Diwali or Chhath arrangement, keep tarpaulin and a covered backup space ready, and secure any hanging lights or banners.
- Charge phones and power banks in case of thunderstorm power cuts, and stay away from loose hoardings, damaged wires and large trees during gusty spells.
- Avoid wading through standing water near exposed electric cables.
- If you plan to visit Digha, Mandarmani or the Sundarbans, check ferry and road status first and consider postponing coastal trips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Cyclone Arnab hit Kolkata?
No direct hit is expected. Landfall is forecast on the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28. Kolkata should feel only the outer effects: rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds.
When will it rain in Kolkata?
Rain is expected to build from October 27, with moderate rain and 30 to 40 km/h winds forecast for October 28 and 29. Check the latest bulletin for the exact peak.
Has the system officially become a cyclone?
It was a depression as of the latest reports, and the IMD expects it to become a cyclonic storm on October 26. The name Arnab is used only once it reaches that strength.
Which Bengal districts may see the heaviest rain?
South 24 Parganas, Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur and Jhargram are named for 70 to 110 mm in places.
The Bottom Line
For Kolkata this is a story about a wet, windy midweek and not an emergency. The cyclone itself is heading for Andhra Pradesh, but south Bengal sits close enough to catch its rain and gusts. Keep Kali Puja and Diwali plans flexible for October 27 to 29, stay away from the coast, and follow the official IMD updates as the storm firms up.
Sources: India Meteorological Department forecasts as reported by The Week (October 25, 2026) and The Statesman (October 23, 2026), with model context from Asianet Newsable. This article was written independently and the forecast may change as the system develops.
Featured image: Dark storm clouds over a moody ocean with a rocky coast, photo by Paolo Chiabrando on Unsplash.
